Classification of Chad’s Trading Partners: Identifying Surplus and Deficit Trade Relationships as the Basis for a Diversification Strategy

This study presents a detailed classification of Chad’s trading partners using econometric methods. Trade flows are segmented by country (United States, China, Germany, France, India, United Arab Emirates, Russia) and by African regions for the period 2004–2023. The methodology combines a comparative analysis of the shares of exports and imports in GDP and in total external trade, together with correlation analysis. The results reveal a deep structural asymmetry in Chad’s foreign trade, with a strong correlation between oil prices and trade volumes with key partners: United States (r = + 0.87), China (r = + 0.76), Germany (r = + 0.68), France (r = + 0.42), and the United Arab Emirates (r = + 0.71). While resource dependence is characteristic of the region exhibits an especially low share of manufacturing in GDP (1.2 %). The analysis clearly identifies surplus partners (United States, China, Germany, India, UAE) and deficit partners (France, Russia, and African partners). Specific diversification recommendations are proposed, including the establishment of an Export Diversification Fund and the prioritization of regional integration areas.