The impact of climate change on crop farming in the drained lands of the European Non-Chernozem region of Russia: vulnerability and adaptation assessment

The impact of climate change on agricultural sustainability has become a particularly acute and global problem. The human activity increasingly significant contributes to such changes. Therefore, investigations have been intensified worldwide to assess the regional agro-climatic consequences of global climate change in order to find ways to adapt to them. This work aimed to assess the vulnerability and adaptation of field crops to a changing weather in the zone of drained lands of the European Non- Chernozem Region, which is characterized by a humid climate and limited thermal resources. Although the thermal conditions for growing crops here are becoming more favorable due to the increase in heat supply, more frequent incessant and heavy rains lead to a sharp overwetting of crops, causing significant crop shortages and quality losses. The novelty of our study lies in the evaluation of a shift in the boundaries of vulnerable territories. The conclusions we came to resulted from the subdivision of the zone into subzones by natural environment attributes, given changes in existing agrolandscapes and farming systems in latitudinal zonality, including thermally deficient areas. In the European Non-Chernozem Region of Russia, with a warming climate, the altitudes of drained lands were shown to affect the magnitude and frequency of heavy precipitation and should be taken into account when regionalizing adaptation measures and strategies, which is done for the this zone for the first time. The paper submits the analysis of thermal changes and atmospheric moisture changes during grain formation in winter cereals and fodder cereals and during intensive accumulation of biomass of silage and hay crops for two periods that differ in the degree of anthropogenic influence on the climate, 1945-1980 and 1981-2017. Using a set of analytical methods (selection of agro-climatic indicators, frequency analysis) and mathematical methods (trend analysis and smoothing of time series, functional analysis, etc.), we revealed that the coverage of areas subject to an increasing risk of overwetting of crops is expanding to the north. An increase in high temperatures leads to an intensification of evaporation and, as a result, to an increased convection. Based on simulation modeling of agro-climatic conditions until 2030, it is also shown that in the future, the northern and marshy areas are the most vulnerable to sudden overwetting. That is, along with the atmospheric circulation (i.e., a higher cyclonic activity), the thermal factor combined with the moisture content of the underlying surface in the soil contribute more and more significantly to the aggravation of overwetting. Soil texture also plays an important role in the manifestation of the effects of atmospheric overwetting on crops. Adaptation of field crop growing to climate change includes a set of measures aimed at effective management of interrelated changes in the thermal regime in the active layer of the atmosphere and the water balance components of the underlying surface and upper layers of the soil. The adaptation measures should regard the agro-climatic, soil and landscape features of the natural and agricultural subzones of the European Non-Chernozem Region drained lands and consists both in optimizing reclamation techniques and in improving crop cultivation technologies and land use planning. It is also extremely important that elevated concentrations of technogenic pollutants in the atmosphere have a negative impact on the quantity and quality of precipitation. Therefore, targeted monitoring of compliance with environmental standards is mandatory.