Component analysis of regional differences in natural population growth in Russia

The paper provides a component assessment of regional differences in the total natural population growth rate (in comparison with the Russian Federation as a whole), based on the modified use of the index method, which takes into account the possibility of both positive and negative values of this indicator. For each constituent entity of the Russian Federation, it has been established to what extent its total natural population growth rate differs from the national one in 2023 due to age-related fertility and mortality rates and the gender and age structure of the population. These components were also grouped by their contribution to the final result, and the contribution of each component to the dynamics of the total natural population growth rate in the country as a whole in 2016–2023 was analyzed. The aim of the study is to assess the regional differentiation in the component composition of the differences in the total natural population growth rate from its national level. Groups of constituent entities of the Russian Federation have been identified in which individual components of natural movement, combined in different combinations, determine the multidirectional development vectors of regional demographic processes. The theoretical significance of the study and its novelty lies in the development of a new approach to the statistical analysis of the components of natural population growth in the regional context, the applied result is the possibility, based on the developed approach, to adjust regional policy measures aimed at demographic stabilization, taking into account changes in individual elements of the population reproduction process. The research results showed that in most regions where there was a natural increase in population in 2023 or a natural decrease in population less than the national average, the main positive contribution was made by a relatively favorable gender and age structure of the population. In half of the regions with a relatively large natural population decline in 2023, compared with Russia as a whole, this was mainly due to high age-related mortality rates.