The short-term forecast of intensity of geomagnetic storms expected as a result of the impact of magnetic clouds on the Earth’s magnetosphere

This paper presents a method for short-term forecast of intensity of geomagnetic storms expected as a result of the influence of magnetic clouds on the Earth’s magnetosphere. This method relies on the calculation of distribution of an Earth-approaching cloud magnetic field from initial satellite measurements of interplanetary magnetic field components. The conclusion about intensity of the expected magnetic storms is drawn from the analysis of the restored dynamics of the cloud magnetic field B z-component and the established relation between geomagnetic storm intensity in the D st-index and interplanetary magnetic field B z-component values.