The Аrctic ice: monitoring and adaptation measures

Monitoring ice conditions in the Arctic seas allows an assessment of the impact of their changes by analyzing the two opposing views - Arctic ice is melting and ice are included in the "cold cycle". Histogram area of perennial Arctic sea ice (2002-2013 gg.), Statistical processing of data allowed to construct a polynomial trend that defines a sufficient degree of probability forecast values minimum area of Arctic sea ice. The best model was selected - the method of harmonic balance and composed of point and interval forecasts of ice cover of the Arctic seas for 2015 and 2016. Risk consideration under climate change is very important in industries mining, of Maritime Navigation and infrastructure in the Russian Arctic, in order to minimize losses arising from possible threats.