Leonard Jimmy Savage and his subjective probability theory. Part I. Scientifc background, preconditions and prospects

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This paper is the first in a series of publications which aims to familiarize infocommunication technology specialists with the legacy of one of the founders of the subjective theory of probability - Leonard Jimmy Savage. It is noted that the content of the fundamental work «Fundamentals of Statistics» brings the modern reader far beyond the title of this book, as it is directly related to subjective theories of risk and expected utility. It is shown that Bernoulli-Savage’s probability theory corresponds to a subclass of complex systems that are commonly referred to as non-reflective quasi-real systems. This class also encompasses a wide range of socioeconomic, ecological, industrial, military and other hierarchical systems, all of which also incorporate, to varying extent, the factor of human reliability and decision-making. The first paper of the series details the scientific background and historical preconditions of the Bernoulli-Savage theory of probability, as well as its prospective outlooks and practical applications.

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Subjective theory of probability, theoretical basis, scientific background, historical preconditions, practical application

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/140256250

IDR: 140256250   |   DOI: 10.18469/ikt.2020.18.1.13

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