Macroeconomic determinants of financial crises

The article is devoted to identifying macroeconomic determinants preceding financial crises, using the Russian economy as an example in the period from 2014 to 2025. The study aims to determine time periods in which deviations indicate an increased probability of a crisis. Particular attention is paid to diagnosing phases of instability characterized by the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of inflation, budget deficit, key rate, current account, volume of private lending and international reserves, a conclusion was made about the most vulnerable periods. It was found that 2024 was characterized by the highest concentration of alarming macroeconomic signals, and in 2025 there are signs of partial stabilization and a slowdown in risk trends. The results obtained confirm the importance of macroeconomic determinants for assessing the risks of a crisis and can be used for monitoring, scenario analysis and development of financial and monetary policy.