Mathematical model of oil price forming adjusted for tight oil factor

This article deals with the development of the mathematical model of oil price forming. To develop a proper mathematical model the methodological principles are defined: three axioms that establish specific properties of oil as a commodity including tight oil. Among the factors of oil pricing the major factor was selected, the dominant factor is an imbalance of supply and demand for oil in the world market. The principles of the mathematical model are presented in three theorems. The first one assumes that for any excess of supply over demand, the price of oil tends to zero, i. e., for a sufficiently large number of auctions it is below any given level. The second theorem states that, in the case of the excess of demand over supply price of oil tends to infinity (a finite number of sessions exceeds any given level), in case of the dominance of the imbalance. The third theorem asserts that the most probable forecast implied by the hypothesis that the mathematical model is accurate is a longstanding process of price auto-fluctuations in so called the tight oil range.