Mathematical modeling of the economic situation of the Russian grain market based on the Holt-Winters three-parameter model

The article presents the results of research on the Russian grain market and shows its important role in the country’s economy. The authors reviewed the grain market situation, reflected the dynamics of its production, and considered the price situation. The analysis made it possible to identify the patterns of financial and economic indicators of the market and to justify the trends of its further development based on the modeling of trend-seasonal time series. As a research tool, the authors selected the three-parameter Holt-winters model, which allows us to take into account not only the factors that influence the subject of forecasting, but also various components of the forecast, such as its main development trend, seasonal and cyclical components, and a random component. As the results of the study, the results of modeling the dynamics of grain production in Russia for the period 2021-2023 are presented, an assessment of the further development of the price environment is given, conclusions about the upward trend in the conditions of excess of demand for culture over supply in both the Russian and world food markets are substantiated.