Method of integrated water use management in production systems considering climatic uncertainties

Water resources management to ensure environmental safety of water bodies is one of the most important indicators for achieving sustainable development goals. To solve the complex problem of forecasting changes in water consumption and sanitation in the context of climate change, new approaches to water management at the regional and basin level that take into account climate risks are needed. The objective of this study is to improve the efficiency of water management in industrial production and their adaptation to climate change. The mechanism of rational water use, taking into account a set of socio-economic, technological and environmental indicators, is based on simulation modeling and nonlinear approximation. A method has been developed that includes: a model of integrated water resources distribution taking into account climatic uncertainties and risks for modeling an optimal water use strategy in order to make the right management decisions; a concept for adaptation to climate change of water resource systems of territorial natural and production complexes, based on the concept of proactive management and scenario planning; a methodology for creating flexible strategies for adaptation to climate change. The presented method can be used by water basin managements in developing schemes for the integrated use and protection of water bodies, by enterprises in various sectors of the economy in creating programs to improve environmental efficiency and developing adaptation measures to climate change. A water management strategy is proposed for the entities of the river and lake basin of the Gulf of Finland in the context of climate change, the implementation of which will improve the efficiency of interaction of production systems at the regional-basin level, reduce energy consumption for water intake from water bodies and wastewater treatment and, thus, reduce greenhouse gas emissions.