The scenario method as the basic tool of long-term industry forecasts

The paper reveals the possibility of using a scenario approach to forecasting the development of the industry or its individual subsystems, for example, oil companies. The essence of the scenario-based forecasting is revealed and the prospects for its use as the main tool of the long-term industry forecasts are proved. The research presents the technology of development scenarios for oil and gas industry in detail. It discusses the implementation of the regulatory and search approaches in the context of industry forecasting. An attempt is made to link the development of the personnel management subsystem with an innovative development scenario for a number of large oil companies. The emphasis is placed on the education and training system for the oil and gas industry personnel that allows oil companies to develop the human resource capacity, which is of particular relevance to them in the context of the rapid introduction of innovations into various business segments in this regard.