Methodological approach to assessing factor influence on fertility in Russia

The relevance of the study is due to the need to assess the impact of socio-economic factors on the birth rate in Russia. The purpose of the paper is to substantiate and to test the methodological tools for assessing the contribution of the most important factors to the fertility rates. We have put forward a hypothesis about the complex influence of both objective socio-economic factors and their subjective assessments by the population, which determines both positive and negative effects, characterized by different forces of influence on fertility. As targets in this study, the total fertility rate for 2021 is used both in general and by the order of births and the average number of children born in 40-44-year-olds according to the 2020 population census, which was actually conducted in 2021, which allows us to talk about the comparability of the data used.The novelty of the study evolves the use of an integrated approach consisting in the assessment of both objective and subjective factor effects on reproductive behavior and fertility. To analyze the socio-economic factor impact on fertility, official Rosstat data for 85 Russian regions for 2021 were used. A subjective assessment of the factorial effect on fertility was carried out using micro-data from a Comprehensive observation of the living conditions of the population conducted by Rosstat in 2022. Another factor indicator was the need for children, which largely regulates reproductive behavior. The methodological tools of the study is based on the use of machine learning and data mining methods, which made it possible to identify the share of each of the statistically significant factors in the overall picture of factorial influence on target indicators. The obtained results of the study indicate the different strength of the factor influence on fertility in general and the order of births, which determines the need for monitoring and assessing the degree of factor influence in the development and adjustment of state programs to stimulate fertility.