Method of two-way analysis of extrapolated values of indicators of innovative activity at the enterprise

In modern conditions of the digital economy, the development of industrial enterprises and increasing their competitiveness is possible only through the effective formation of innovative activities. There are many models of quantitative forecasts and scenario methods to assess the level of success of this process. The paper considers extrapolation methods in combination with economic and mathematical tools of scenario forecasting, including simulation modeling using the Monte Carlo method. For the implementation of forecasting was used program Statistica 7 and Microsoft Excel 10. The author’s approach is to select the resulting indicator - the coefficient of variation, the value of which shows the accuracy of the extrapolations made. Extrapolations were carried out for a sample of indicators: «Net profit», «Availability and movement of R & d results», «Income from research and development in the field of natural and technical Sciences», «Income from the production of engines and aircraft». The results of the study showed that the use of only one method is not indicative, it is necessary to Supplement the extrapolation method with an analysis of the results of a sufficiently large representative sample (1000 simulation simulations were conducted in the study). Based on a two-way analysis, only one of the eight indicators was described as an accurate measurement.