Risk assessment methodology for budget expenditures using the example of the Nizhny Novgorod region

Risk is an integral part of the economy, an objective phenomenon accompanying the activities of any entity. Unfortunately, the modern methodology for assessing budget risks, its legal and practical basis have many shortcomings. In this regard, financial institutions face a number of difficulties in risk-based budgeting. Historically, the tradition of budgeting in Russia seems to imply that the planned indicators will either not be achieved or will exceed the established norms. According to the authors, testing and modification of budget risk identification tools is currently the most urgent problem. The main purpose of the study is to create a scientifically based methodology for determining the risk of revenue and expenditure parts of the budget aimed at minimizing uncertainties. To achieve this goal was considered the semantics of the concept of budget risk, in the interpretation of different approaches. A methodology for budget risk assessment has been developed. The calculations of the budget expenditures of the Nizhny Novgorod region, identified problematic municipalities, expenditure items, and set the overall vector of development of the region in terms of risk.