Technique of constructing integrated indices as a tool of demographic zoning in Russian regions

In the twenty-first century, the demographic crisis in Russia is expressed not in, but qualitative transformations of various structures of the population: age - demographic ageing; gender - gender imbalance, marriage - marriage ageing, spread of unofficial unions and, as a result, growing number of children born out of wedlock; family - a decrease in reproductive attitudes, reduction of childbearing; ethnic - growing ethnic tensions; health structure - growing incapacitation and mortality from external causes, especially among population of working age. However, the situation is complicated by significant regional differentiation of Russian regions according to the nature of quantitative and qualitative transformations. One of the ways of assessing the demographic situation and its key threats, which would help conduct the demographic zoning is a technique of constructing integrated indices. The author reviewed domestic experience of using index techniques for analyzing the demographic development of territories and the demographic threats. The article offers a technique for calculating integrated indices of quantitative and qualitative changes in the population. The first indicator is based on two key sub-indices: depopulation and mechanical movement. The second consists of five sub-indices: age structure quality, sex structure quality, quality of marriage, quality of health and quality of the ethnic structure. To unite sub-criteria into a single index the author used their unification and subsequent convolution using linear scaling. The technique was was tested in 80 Russian constituent entities. The time interval was 2000-2014. The author ranked the regions according to the value of integrated indices of quanti- tative and qualitative changes and constructed the matrix of correlation of indices comprising 25 possible combinations, which identified 17 variants as of 2014. The matrix helped identify seven types of regions according to nature of the demographic situation. The conclusion is made about the benefits of using such techniques in terms of regularly monitoring the demographic situation and using a differentiated approach to the management of territorial development.