Methodology for developing an organization’s business model and forecasting its economic efficiency

The article presents a methodology for developing and forecasting the economic efficiency of the organization’s business model on the basis of quantitative economic indicators. This methodology includes a set of interrelated tools and makes it possible to forecast the economic results obtained by the organization in a given market in comparison with the results of competing organizations. The methodology is universal, flexible and can be adapted to solve highly specialized tasks specific to a particular market. Besides, the methodology has been tested as part of EMAS Business School’s educational and consulting projects in the Russian and foreign markets. Based on the comparative analysis of such quantitative economic indicators of the analyzed and competing organizations as revenue, sales volume, gross and net profit, sales margin on direct costs, shares in the market volume in value and in physical terms, the approach to assessing the effectiveness of the business model and individual decisions in the field of business modeling is proposed. This approach allows to obtain a complex picture of the market situation in the evaluated period. In addition to business modeling, the methodology can be used to forecast the economic efficiency of decisions in the field of organizational corporate strategy.