Methods and criteria for identification of groups at radiation risk of breast cancer in the population of contaminated areas in Russia and Republic of Belarus, with account of the effect of screening

The paper focuses on optimization methods of monitoring the health of population in existing exposure situations. The method of identifying groups of radiation risk among the exposed population based on calculation of an attributable radiation fraction (ARF) for cancer incidence is presented. It is shown that for the given history of the existing exposure there is a gender and age group of the population with the maximal radiation risk. Identification of groups at risk is shown on the example of the population of the contaminated arias in Bryansk region of Russia and Gomel region of Republic of Belarus. The following population groups were selected as groups at risk for radiation-induced breast cancer in 2015: residents of contaminated areas in Bryansk region with the ARF value more than 30%, aged 17-29 years, the number of persons 8679; residents of contaminated areas in Gomel region - with the ARF value more than 37.5%, aged 16-29 years, the number of persons 6165. Identification of the group of risk with the developed method allows optimizing monitoring on population health status for early diagnosis, due to selection of about 4% of persons from the population of the contaminated areas.