Scenario planning methods in developing a financial strategy for a retail company in the context of an economic crisis

The article substantiates the relevance of using scenario planning methods to form a financial strategy in the context of an economic crisis. The concept of “Scenario Planning” is revealed. The basic principles of financial scenario planning are substantiated. An algorithm for developing scenarios with a justification for each step of scenario formation is determined. The features of scenario planning in the context of an economic crisis are highlighted. The connections between the mechanisms of scenario planning and the formation of the company’s financial strategy are revealed. The features of developing scenarios for the purposes of forming the company’s financial strategy are substantiated. Positive and negative aspects of the influence of scenario planning on the quality of the developed financial strategy are detailed. The period of effective scenario planning and its change in a crisis situation are identified. A frequent discrepancy between the period of effective scenario planning and the payback period of investments in retail industry companies is analyzed. Positive and negative aspects of applying scenario planning in a company are considered. The advisability of creating a separate financial plan for each scenario of the company’s development is substantiated. The special importance of applying scenario planning for the first element of the financial strategy – financing the company in a crisis – is determined. An algorithm of scenario planning for the company’s financing strategy is developed. The importance of the threat and opportunity analysis stage is emphasized.