International commodity trade: in pridie perturbationum

The article examines new shifts in the dynamics of global commodity exchange observed in the past year and the preceding period. The five-year period under consideration turned out to be quite difficult for international trade in goods, which underwent a significant transformation on a global scale, practically on the verge of its reformatting. The considerable conflict potential gradually accumulating in this area at the global level naturally predetermined the current trajectory of dynamic processes. Among the factors that negatively influenced them, one can recall the attempts to segment the world trade system by creating various elite integration blocs and unions bypassing the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the build-up of sanctions that discriminate against undesirable trading partners (including the Russian Federation, the Republic of Belarus, etc.). The widespread of a new viral infection, which forced the adoption of counter-protective measures, later became an underestimated and extremely powerful test. For these and other reasons, the current dynamics of the value volumes of international commodity exchange was subjected to such significant unfavorable pressure that it eventually formed as a permanent sinusoidal trend in its evolution with their rises and falls replacing each other more and more often. However, it seemed to the experts of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the processes of recovery of the world economy and global commodity exchange, despite their low rates, would gradually normalize the situation. However, the critical moment, according to their assessment, came in 2025 with the arrival of the new US administration, which in a short time created exceptional circumstances at the global level. Thus, in early April of this year, the United States announced the introduction of a set of new tariffs in relation to its main trading partners and their most important industries. This caused noticeable confusion among numerous counterparties, because at the current level of interdependence, such steps resemble a tsunami, and the world found itself on the threshold of a new perturbation. The analysis undertaken by the author is traditionally based on the generally accepted methodology of comparative statistical research.