Economic growth model of the US real GDP

The USA is a state with a developed and healthy market economy, as evidenced by economic indicators. The most significant indicator measuring the effectiveness of the economy - the GDP growth rate in 2019 amounted to 2.2 %. Consumer price inflation amounted to 1.8 % in 2019, which is an excellent result compared to other countries, especially developing ones. According to the World Bank, the country has a decline in unemployment, the annual unemployment rate in 2019 was 3.87 % in the United States. The listed characteristics of the state economy, as well as other indicators considered in this article, reflect the success of the state, and therefore it was chosen to build an econometric model of GDP growth rates. The work used a wide range of measures to verify the quality of models, as well as to verify that the conditions of the Gauss Markov theorem are satisfied. The results of the study indicate that the model can be used in forecasting.