Model for assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation and the Russian Central Bank’s instruments under sanctions

The article analyzes current challenges faced by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation under the pressure of imposed economic sanctions. Special attention is given to the specifics of the implementation of monetary policy in a new macroeconomic environment, where the traditional channels of influence and the instruments of the Bank of Russia require adaptation and improvement. The paper examines the particularities of using liquidity management tools, interest rate regulation, currency interventions, reserve requirements, and open market operations under conditions of external pressure on the country’s financial system. Special focus is given to the development and testing of an integrated model for assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy measures. The model accounts for multicomponent indicators reflecting both internal and external economic risks, shifts in inflationary and devaluation expectations, as well as the transformation of behavior in financial and non-financial sectors. A comprehensive approach is proposed for optimizing monetary instruments, contributing to the achievement of balanced targets in terms of inflation, exchange rate policy, and the stability of the banking system. The practical significance of the research lies in formulating methodological recommendations to enhance the resilience and flexibility of the Bank of Russia’s tools for managing economic stability under sanction pressure. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of applying the developed model to optimize monetary policy and increase the effectiveness of monetary regulation instruments in the context of sanctions pressure on the economy of the Russian Federation.