Patterns of reproductive behavior of population (on the materials of Vologda oblast)

The article presents an attempt to comprehend the models of the reproductive behavior of the Russian population, and the role of matrimonial attitudes in its formation. Despite the fact that in the modern world the role of legal marriage in the birth and upbringing of children is gradually weakening, in Russia the attitude to it continues to be an important factor in making decisions about childbearing. This fact determines the study of the reproductive and marital behavior of population in an indissolible connection. The article considsers and correlates historical types of reproductive and marital behavior. On the basis of a regular round of the sociological monitoring of the reproductive potential of the population of Vologda oblast conducted by the Vologda Research Center RAS in 2017, there were constructed hypothetical and real patterns of the reproductive behavior of population by the method of decision-making "tree". The former consider individual opinions regarding marriage preferences, admissibility of abortion, desired number of children, while the latter reflect strategies used in real life. It is found out that at present, in the hypothetical, as in the real behavior patterns of the inhabitants of the region prevail both traditional (official registration of relations with partner) and modern (orientation on few children in family) features together. The most common reproductive attitudes among the population in the coming decades will contribute to reinforcement of the few-children pattern among the most part of Russians that will lead to decline in the birth rate. Construction of models of the population demographic behavior allows identifying “risk categories” among the population, assessing the possibilities of managerial influence on them and proposing certain measures of state policy to ensure the desired parameters of population reproduction.