Modeling population dynamics of employees in the regional economy (on materials of Yamal-Nenets autonomous district)

The paper considers the use of econometric models and models of system dynamics to assess changes in the average annual number of people employed in the regional economy of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, which is one of the key resource-extracting regions of Russia. When using econometric methods, the specified macroeconomic indicator was estimated as the average between its estimated estimates obtained using the combined model of the corresponding time series and the regression model for the time series of macroeconomic indicators that have the greatest impact on the number of employees in the regional economy under consideration. In the system dynamics model, a modification of the method for assessing its key components is carried out, which takes into account the specifics of the region under consideration in the demographic aspect. The calculated values of the number of employed were compared with the corresponding statistical data in the regional context, published by the State Statistics Service.