Modeling long-term development scenarios Far Eastern federal district: pessimistic and most real scenarios

In this article, the author considers two models of different scenarios for the long-term development of the macro-region of the Far Eastern Federal District: the pessimistic one and the most probable one - the base one. In the models, the author takes into account such factors of regional development as: current legislation, within which possible changes will be described or a situation in which nothing will change; gross regional product, the value of which will change in accordance with the chosen scenario; infrastructure, which will also develop according to the scenario; demographic parameters; unemployment rate. The study shows that under the pessimistic scenario, the development of infrastructure will be suspended and the level of prosperity of the population of the macroregion will accordingly decrease. There will be less and less logistics routes due to the harsh climate of the Russian Federation and the poor condition of the transport roads, and therefore the threshold for the maximum permitted weight of cargo transportation on these routes will be lowered. Roads will cease to be serviced in the required volumes, which will lead to an increase in logistics costs - the transfer of cargo flows to other shoulders of transport corridors, lengthening of delivery routes, and, consequently, an increase in prices for manufactured / supplied products or services.