Study of the tourist potential of a regional entity

In 2020, the world faced the Covid-19 pandemic, so restrictions imposed to contain a new coronavirus infection led to a drastic reduction in tourist flows and, as a consequence, to the acute crisis of the entire world tourism and related industries. The tourism industry in Russia, due to the introduction of quarantine restrictions associated with the spread of coronavirus infection, suffered significant negative impacts. The development of tourism in the Russian Federation reflected global trends that were directly related to restrictive measures under COVID-19. In this article the features of tourist flows of the Smolensk region have been analyzed. The analysis of the dynamics of the inflow of tourists into the region and its growth rates in the range of 2017-2021 has been performed. The factors that constrain the development of the tourism industry of the regional entity have been identified. Various types of trend models that characterize the dynamics of the inflows of tourists into the region and its growth rates have been created. The analysis of the quality of constructed linear and non-linear trend models has been made. The choice of the best quality models, which were later used to make forecasts for 2023-2024, has been substantiated. The recommendations for the development of the tourism cluster of the regional entity have been formulated. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the obtained results in devising a strategy for the development of the tourism industry of the Smolensk region for perspective periods.