Modeling the impact of innovation processes in agriculture on the guaranteed level of food security

The purpose of the work is to develop an approach to the study and modeling of agrarian innovation as one of the mechanisms to ensure food security of the Russian Federation. Intensive use in the agrarian sphere of innovative research and development, including the production and acquisition of the latest machinery, equipment and other fixed assets, the development, implementation and improvement of innovative entrepreneurship mechanisms, effective management system, marketing tools, education, training and retraining of personnel, the use of design engineering, planning, development and implementation of new methods of doing business, organization of jobs and external relations and, accordingly, the acquisition of The article analyzes the factors affecting the consumption of basic food products on the basis of intellectual analysis methods, constructs a model in the form of a system of simultaneous econometric equations, carries out the identification and verification of the model, statistical evaluation of unknown parameters of the model, as well as assessing the adequacy and accuracy of forecast data by testing statistical hypotheses.