Tax revenue of the regional budget of a resource type under conditions of external shocks (case of Kemerovo region - Kuzbass)

The purpose of the study is to identify the features and trends in the development of tax revenues of the Kemerovo region - Kuzbass as a resource-type region in conditions of external shocks, and to develop recommendations for their stabilization. Indicators for 2019-2023, cleared of inflation, were analyzed. It is shown that the coronavirus crisis led to a sharp drop in tax revenues of the regional budget. In 2021-2022 they exceeded the level of 2019 by 50%, but in 2023 a negative trend was observed again. The main factor explaining the variation in tax revenues is income tax revenues. They have a strong correlation with world coal prices and the ruble exchange rate. Therefore, the hypothesis about the dependence of tax revenues on the world coal market as the main resource of the region was confirmed. Dependency can only be reduced if the gross regional product is diversified. It is also proposed to create resource-type stabilization funds in the regions, which will serve as a reserve for periods of low prices for raw materials (this requires amendments to the federal budget legislation).