On possible situations under uncertainty

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The application of probability in solving various problems under conditions of uncertainty and the risks arising from this is discussed. It is noted that the difficulties accompanying the solution of problems under conditions of uncertainty contributed to the emergence of the concept of subjective probability. The risks arising in these conditions, as well as possible consequences, are considered. The question is discussed in which cases the risk can be useful, what is the essence of the usefulness of the risk and what it depends on. It is shown that the task of making a decision under uncertainty is reduced to the same task under risk, and that the utility of risk is the ratio of the one who risks to his possible gain or loss. Along with these arguments, examples are given from historical events that took place in the history of Russia in the past.

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Probability, subjectivity, uncertainty, risk, utility, loss, gain

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/170199237

IDR: 170199237   |   DOI: 10.24412/2500-1000-2023-4-4-177-181

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