Rationale of management decisions based on the analysis of event frequencies

The article presents a methodology for estimating the probability of an event based on the analysis of its frequencies observed according to historical data. The methodology is aimed at making quantitatively sound decisions in the field of economic management. It can be applied both at the micro level and at the macro level. The basis of the proposed approach is the collection of data in the form of a database of values of features identified and evaluated for each observed event (phenomenon, fact). The database is presented in the form of a table, which allows you to summarize information on various grounds. The method allows us to give a quantitative characteristic based on a multifactorial data set. The essence of the justification of the management decision according to the proposed approach is to assess the typicality of the investigated (predicted) event and on this basis – the subsequent planning of the structure of management actions, regardless of the type of target criterion for decision-making. The method is suitable for use in the field of economics, but it can also have a wider coverage of management areas. The indicators of features in the database can be both quantitative and non-quantitative units of measurement. The technique is compatible with other methods of processing big data arrays, in particular, cluster and correlation-regression analysis.