Assessment and forecasting indicators of financial and economic stability of the Russian Federation

The purpose of this work is to assess and forecast indicators of financial and economic stability of the Russian Federation. To diagnose and measure the cumulative impact of a complex of macro-financial indicators of the country, such as: price stability, the volume of external and internal public debts, the balance of the general budget of the state, the stability of the banking system, the stability of the national currency exchange rate, and the balance of payments, an index for assessing financial security was developed, using the method of multivariate comparative analysis. To predict the index of ensuring financial and economic stability of the Russian Federation in the period 2024-2030. The work developed a loglinear model based on the extended Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, the Engel-Granger method, the Johansen cointegration method and others. The results of the work show that: if we assume the continuation of current conditions affecting the development of the Russian economy, including COVID-19, military conflict in the Middle East and North Africa, a special operation in Ukraine, etc., the level of financial stability of the Russian Federation is within 0.50 to 0.53. This means that in the near future the financial stability of the Russian Federation will be at an average level. If the Russian economy can continue to maintain annual growth of 1 %, at the level of all macro-financial indicators, then the country's financial security index will be stable and reliable overall.