Estimation of the forecast of the electoral disposition of the Russian regions by materials of the parliamentary presidential elections of 2016 and 2018

The article compares the forecast of the results of the presidential elections of 2018 at the regional level with the real results of these elections. The forecast is based on the results of the 2016 parliamentary elections and the identification of four types of electoral predisposition of the regions (sustained-increased support for a particular party, sustained-reduced support, potential reduction and potential increase in support) and three types of territorial distribution of conditions conducive to voting for the party. The paper shows features of the support of the ER (UR), the Communist Party and the LDPR.