Assessing the risks of development and territorial organization of prospective industrial development of the resource, raw material, and ecological potential of the forests of the Republic of Tuva under sanctions

The relevance of this study stems from the need to reorient Russia’s economic policy toward the east and import substitution in the face of sanctions pressure, which necessitates the development of manufacturing industries in border regions with significant resource potential. The Republic of Tuva, half of whose territory is covered by forests, is a prime example of such a region. The objective of this study is to comprehensively assess the risks and prospects for the territorial organization of industrial development of forest resources in the Republic of Tuva, taking into account current challenges, including sanctions restrictions and the impact of anthropogenic ecosystems. The objectives included: analyzing the resource potential and current state of the region’s forestry industry; identifying systemic problems and assessing environmental, economic, and social risks; and developing recommendations for minimizing risks and optimizing the territorial organization of forestry activities. The research methods are based on the analysis and synthesis of official statistics, strategic and policy documents (in particular, the “Strategy for the Development of Forestry in the Republic of Tyva through 2030”), as well as relevant scientific publications. Statistical-economic, comparative-geographical, and abstract-logical methods were applied. The novelty of the study lies in its comprehensive examination of forestry development issues in a mountainous border region through the prism of the interaction of sanctions, requirements for the territorial organization of production, and anthropogenic pressure on ecosystems. An approach to territorial zoning that takes into account risk differentiation is proposed. The main findings indicate significant untapped resource potential (only about 10% of the estimated forest cut is utilized), but also a profound crisis in the industry, characterized by asset depreciation, a lack of deep processing, and weak infrastructure. The key risks are environmental (forest ecosystem degradation, fires), socioeconomic (mono-industry, unemployment), and institutional. Sustainable development requires comprehensive modernization based on green economy principles, the creation of deep processing clusters, and strengthened forest protection and restoration measures.