Estimation of mudflow risk in the Lesser Caucasus (on example of the Terterchay river)

In the article the geological-geomorphological and climatic conditions of mudflow formation in the south-eastern slope of the Lesser Caucasus on the example of the Terterchay River are researched and their activity under climate change conditions is estimated. According to the carried mudflow mass the mud flows are subdivided into water-stone flows, low-stability rocks are involved in the geological-geomorphological structure of the basins. Investigation of the Terterchay River basin, based on the materials of interpretation of space images (SI), revealed the degree of mudflow risk and the type of mudflows. The article also analyzed meteorological conditions that caused mudflows in the basin of the Terterchay River. Quantitative indicators of mudflow-forming rain were revealed. The vertical distribution of abundant precipitation with a daily sum of ³ 20 mm was investigated. The connection of the mudflows with macrocirculation processes over Europe and Western Siberia was established. To do that types of circulation according to G.Ya. Wangengheim and B. L. Dzerdzeevsky were used.