Assessment of the impact of sanctions on the market of meat and meat products in Russia: current state and prospects for market development

The complicated geopolitical situation in the world has led to the intensification of economic relations between Russia, most European countries and the USA. The main consequences of strained relations are economic sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 and food embargo on some imported goods. Heavy dependence of the Russian economy on food imports, as well as the gap in self-sufficiency of basic foodstuffs (meat and meat products) at the moment of imposition of sanctions create a threat to the country's food security. The purpose for the paper is to assess the impacts of sanctions on the market of meat and meat products in Russia in light of definition of further market development prospects. The study is of comprehensive and exhaustive nature, focusing on three areas: analyses of changes in imports, domestic production, consumer prices, and the level of self-sufficiency. Unlike other works on this topic, the article examines the balance of food resources both at the level of the country and each region. The result of analysis was the calculation of the level of self-sufficiency in meat and meat products for several years with the aim of further classification of regions and identification of changes which occurred as a result of embargo and sanctions. It is shown that on the positive side of sanctions is the weakening dependence on imports, increased geographical diversification of trade relations, the development of domestic production of meat and meat products, increased number of regions with the level of self-sufficiency in meat products above the critical value, and the achievement of specific standards of meat products consumption in the country as a whole, which indicates improving food security in Russia. The authors establish that the leading role in the industry's largest meat producers leads to bankruptcy amid economy insecurity of small producers. This results in the unreasonably inflated pricing policy (increasing trade mark-up in the structure of retail prices). In order to determinethe prospects for the development of the market of meat and meat products, the authors prove the necessity of using the method of constructing a seasonal ARIMA model. The designed econometric model for forecasting the production of meat and meat products leads to the conclusion about the growth of this indicator by the end of 2017 by 7.5% compared to the same period of the previous year. The prospects for further studies in this area is the determination of the value of counter-sanctions in terms of imports since the introduction of counter-sanctions coincided with declining oil prices and the real ruble devaluation, which also led to reduced imports. The possible field of application of the present study is the formulation of strategies for the development of the meat industry by region, federal district and Russia as a whole.