Assessing the Impact of the Tourism Industry on Regional Economic Growth During Periods of Systemic Restrictions and Recovery

Introduction. In the context of global crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and increased geopolitical tensions, traditional drivers of economic growth often lose their effectiveness. In this context, the tourism industry, demonstrating high adaptability due to the growth of domestic and independently organized tourism, is becoming a potential stabilizing factor and a source of regional development. The purpose of this study is to empirically assess the impact of tourism development on the economic growth of Russian regions during the period of significant restrictions (2019–2022) in order to form strategic decisions in the field of sectoral policy Materials and Methods. The empirical basis of the study was Rosstat's annual panel data on 84 regions of the Russian Federation over a four-year period covering both the pre-crisis stage and the phases of active restriction and recovery. To test hypotheses and quantify relationships, a set of econometric analysis methods was applied, including the evaluation of pooled regression models with fixed and random effects. The Hausman test was used to verify the results. Additionally, in order to identify stable typological patterns, clusterization of regions was carried out using the k-means method for the dynamics of key indicators of tourist activity and economic development. 4 types of regions were identified: Republic of Altai with extreme indicators; 12 “tourist donors”; 27 regions with “growth points”; 33 “attention zones”. Results. Econometric modeling revealed a statistically significant positive impact of tourist activity on the gross regional product. The analysis showed that the variation in tourism development explains about 34 % of the variation in regional economic growth. According to the tests, the best specification (a model with random effects) confirmed the importance of not only a generalized indicator of tourist activity, but also the scale of the tourism industry, measured as gross value added. Discussion and Conclusion. Tourism demonstrates resilience to crisis shocks, but its contribution to economic growth is heterogeneous across regions. The effectiveness of traditional fiscal support tools has been limited. The results substantiate the need for a differentiated regional policy, shifting the focus from tax benefits to infrastructural development, taking into account the specifics of the selected clusters. The prospect of further research is to expand the time series and include additional factors in the analysis, such as the specifics of the tourist flow and digitalization of tourist services, and the environmental sustainability of destinations.