Optimization of regional tax potential assessment: methods, scenarios, and an integrated model based on the example of the Volgograd region

In the context of economic uncertainty and dynamic changes in tax legislation, accurate assessment of regional tax potential is vital for ensuring financial stability and effective budget planning. This article explores and compares three core methods of tax potential assessment: the direct calculation method, the factual method, and the representative tax system (RTS). Using Volgograd Region as a case study, the study applies each method individually, highlighting their strengths and limitations. The research further introduces an integrated model that combines these approaches using weighted coefficients, allowing for a more balanced and realistic evaluation. Additionally, scenario modeling is applied to simulate optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic projections by adjusting key parameters such as collection efficiency. The analysis demonstrates that the integrated and adaptive approach significantly improves the reliability of forecasts, supports more informed decision-making, and enhances the flexibility of regional fiscal policy. This methodology provides a practical tool for tax administration under conditions of economic volatility.