Optimizing selection of risk management methods under budget constraints

The aim of the study is to develop a combined method for optimal distribution of the supply chain risk management budget that provides a balance between cost minimization, risk reduction and investment efficiency. Objectives: to study existing approaches and their limitations in the context of budget constraints; to develop a method that bypasses the limitations by defining key criteria for assessing risk management measures and constructing an integral rating formula with adaptive weighting factors; to conduct a practical test on data that is as close to real as possible and to assess the effectiveness of each method. The object of the study is budget allocation methods for supply chain risk management. A comparative analysis of three approaches to selecting supply chain risk management methods is carried out based on traditional criteria: 1) the most dangerous risk – ranking by potential damage; 2) the most effective response – selecting methods with maximum absolute savings; 3) the best savings coefficient – optimization by the savings coefficient. Based on the identified limitations, a combined weighted method is proposed that combines the advantages of all three methods. This approach integrates three key criteria – savings, profitability, costs into a simplified multi-criteria model. Unlike classical MCDM methods (AHP, TOPSIS), the combined weighted method requires less computational costs and is adapted to budget constraints. The study was conducted using five typical logistics risks (delivery disruption, customs delays, warehouse shortages, transport breakdowns, delivery delays) with data close to real ones (probabilities, damages, costs of management measures). The combined weighted method outperforms traditional methods in terms of budget allocation efficiency, while maintaining focus on critical risks. The flexibility of the method allows you to adapt the weights of criteria to the company's strategic priorities (for example, damage reduction or strict savings).