Experience of research of financial features of turbulent aggregates

The authors updated the general economic issues of identifying such types of fraud as participation in price collusion and manipulation of financial statements. Real aggregates reflecting the activities of economic entities have the properties of turbulence generated by the information reflection of a chaotic polysubject environment. On the basis of the aggregate (case-based) data model, a methodology has been proposed for analyzing turbulent aggregates of economic entities presumably participating in price collusion and / or manipulating accounting reports. The task of building the resulting probabilistic model was set and consistently solved, which allows to build integral indicators that evaluate both the accuracy of the price collusion and the degree of manipulation of the accounting (financial) reporting. The transition from the probit of binary choice models to the probit multiple choice models is logically justified. The approbation of the proposed approach was carried out and the corresponding conclusions were drawn on the example of such activities as the extraction of crude oil and gas and the production of food products. This work was carried out with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR), project No. 18-010-00700.