Main Directions of Arctic Policies in Reports by USA Think Tank

Introduction. Against the backdrop of escalating conflict in Ukraine and deepening Russian-Chinese cooperation in the Arctic, US policy is demonstrating new trends. The aim of this study is to identify the main stages in the evolution of US Arctic policy, as well as its key thematic areas. Materials and Methods. This study applies the BERTopic and DTM models for topic modeling and dynamic analysis of 918 official policy documents (such as strategies, doctrines, directives, and reports) and research reports published by government agencies and think tanks from 2005 to January 2025. Results. The main topics of reports on US Arctic policy focus on four areas: geopolitics and security, environmental and climate change, economic and technological development, and scientific research and data monitoring. Dynamic thematic modeling further revealed the evolution of Arctic policy and reports by US think tanks, which went through stages of transition from environmental protection to energy resource development and then to geopolitical competition. Discussion and Conclusion. Against the backdrop of deepening Russian-Chinese cooperation in the Arctic and the escalating conflict in Ukraine, the US is consistently strengthening security in cooperation with its allies and increasing its military presence in the region. Looking ahead, US Arctic policy will focus on competition between leading powers, energy security, and technological innovation, driven by the need to respond to growing challenges in international security and global governance. Understanding these trends is of key practical importance for experts and policymakers in Russia and other interested countries, as it enables them to formulate more accurate forecasts and develop effective responses to changes in US Arctic strategy.