A prospective assessment of the functioning electric networks reliability using the example of the PJSC Rossetti Volga - Saratov Distribution Networks Branch)

The purpose of the article presented to the readers is an analytical assessment of the transport of electric energy through the distribution networks of one of the branches of PJSC Rosseti Volga - Saratov Distribution Networks. The article is a continuation of the research cycle on the reliability of electric power transmission through power transmission systems of PJSC ROSSETI. The information published in the open press is used as the source data. The structure of the company, the characteristics of the main elements of the studied electric networks are considered, as well as a quantitative assessment of emergency situations and the amount of under-discharge of electric energy caused by power supply interruptions that occurred during the period from 2015 to 2023. The classification of the causes of failures is given and a quantitative assessment of each group of failures and their percentage ratio is established. Based on the data obtained, a prognostic assessment of possible emergency shutdowns, as well as their consequences in the studied electrical networks in the near future, was made. The technologies of statistical methods, in particular regression analysis, were used as a methodological basis for creating predictive models. The autoregression equations of the studied accident rates for each month of 2024 are obtained, on the basis of which the forecast values of these indicators are calculated. General scientific methods as well as numerical methods of analysis were used in the research. Excel technologies and the MATLAB graphics editor were used to visualize the obtained analysis results. The results obtained may be of interest to the heads of power grid companies, as well as researchers and engineers engaged in research in the field of reliability of power supply.