The Ethiopian dam “Renaissance”: geopolitical context and international law

The world has accumulated sufficient experience in settling water disputes in the field of interstate relations, but it is unlikely that there is a region where the problem of water distribution is definitively and irrevocably solved. The number of agreements increases, but the conflicts subside only for a while, until the increasing, for various reasons, shortage of water or other resources, which can be compensated by water (or for e. g., electricity), becomes critical and turns into a problem with the renewed vigor. The sharing of water in the Nile basin is a good illustration of this statement. Ethiopia’s construction of the dam “Renaissance” conditioned by the shortage of electricity in the area, violated the established rules of the Nile basin countries’ water use and created a conflict situation in the Ethiopian-Egyptian relations. The unfolding conflict has complicated the Egyptian-Sudanese relations as well. The development of the situation around the Sudano-Egyptian agreement of 1959 also shows that sooner or later all countries of the basin have to be involved in the process of water problems solution, no matter how weak they seem to be. Bringing the benefit to several regional states, the Ethiopian dam increases the tension in the region. The change in the status quo of the Egyptian-Sudanese agreement is already destabilizing international relations and is likely to cause further conflicts and proxy wars. The development of negative scenarios lies in the water law itself, as it is based on conflicting concepts.