Political organization of the world in the context of contemporary megatrends: scenarios of development

Introduction. The article examines the scenarios of the political development of the world depending on the megatrends such as globalization, integration, democratization and the opposite trends - de-globalization, disintegration and de-democratization, as well as the current state of the political organization of the world, including the Westphalian system, the system of interstate relations (system of international relations) and political systems of the modern world states. Methods and materials . The political organization of the world is considered as a system consisting of three subsystems. In this regard, the main approach in the study is the systems approach. Scenario analysis is used as a research method. Analysis. Recently interest in scenarios of the political development of the world has sharply increased, which is reflected in the publications of many Russian and foreign authors. The scenarios of the political development of the world in the 21st century, after the crises associated with the terrorist attacks in 2001, the economic crisis that began in 2008 and the crisis in 2020 caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, began to be discussed especially intensively. Most researchers consider such scenarios based on ideas about the possible configuration of interstate relations, i.e. parts of the system of international (interstate) relations. It is shown that this parameter of analysis is important, but insufficient. It is proposed to consider the scenarios of the political development of the world on the basis of how megatrends and trends alternative to them will act, as well as how the political organization of the world will develop. Results. Four parameters of scenario analysis are identified: 1) time parameter in actions of (mega) trends; 2) differentiated actions (mega) trends in many indicators of economic and social interaction; 3) configuration of the leading states in the international arena (part of the system of international relations). This parameter is widely used by various researchers; 4) an evolutionary (smooth) or revolutionary (through conflicts, crises, etc.) way of transforming the political organization of the world. The combination of development in these parameters (it is possible to single out additional parameters) gives a picture of world politics in the future.