The concept and the principles of an outcome of political forecasting in prolonged ethnopolitical conflict

The article is devoted to an actual theoretical and methodological problem of modern political science, that is political forecasting of an outcome of prolonged ethnopolitical conflict. The author describes main principles of forecasting in their variety and branch applicability. The principles of alternativeness, comprehensiveness, continuity and verification of political forecasting are considered in details. While characterising political forecasting as advancing reflexion of the political validity, the author analyzes the principal types of political forecasting. They are standard and prospective ones. The key features of an outcome of prolonged conflict as well as the causes of occurrence of conflict situations in ethnic groups are under consideration.