Application of the method of monitoring and forecasting of breakthrough technologies on the example of lighting

The paper describes the method to identification of innovations that claim to reveal emerging technologies through the analysis of intellectual property of main patent organizations and offices. The efficiency is calculated by means of neural network modeling. On the basis of this method the market of light engineering in Russia has been analyzed. During the study historical patent analysis of lighting market was conducted in order to determine "technological cycles" in the industry. The study suggests that LED/OLED technologies have great potential in Russia.