Application of mathematical modeling methods for forecasting crimes of corruption direction

Corrupt practices have an increased social danger, since they lead to the strengthening of organized crime, its merging with the state apparatus. In this work, forecasting corruption-related crimes is using mathematical modeling methods, which determines the practical significance of the study and its applied nature. Materials and methods: the methodological basis of the work is composed of statistical approaches, approximation and interpolation methods used to analyze statistical data of reports presented in a traditional tabular form that does not reflect the analytical dependencies of the studied indicators. Results of the study: in this article we consider the method of interval forecasting, in terms of which the dynamics of corruption crimes was approximated using trend models of various levels according to the reports of the GIAC of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia for 2003-2018. Findings and conclusions: it is shown that, to approximate the processes of the dynamics of crimes of the time series, it is most preferable to use a multivariate polynomial function. At the same time, it is preferable to approximate corruption-oriented processes only using a multivariate polynomial model not lower than a polynomial of the third degree.