Application of scenario approach for the assessment the stability of water use system in Fergana valley

In article the methodology and results of development the GIS-system with elements of the computer modeling, allowing to estimate the size of water deficiency in Fergana Valley under various operating conditions of water management system of the top part of Syr-Darya river basin is described. Regions of Fergana Valley where shortage of water resources is observed were revealed, the reasons of its emergence connected with existing structure of land use are considered, and also possible mechanisms of increase the stability of water use system and its adaptation to conditions of water resources limitation are considered.