Problems of natural movement of the population of Ryazan region in 2016-2036

The article considers the issues of natural movement of the population of Ryazan region. By crude vital rates, the region is included in the group of regions with the lowest rate (5.5%o), oc­cupying the 66th place among the Russian Federation subjects. From 2006 to 2019 the population of the region decreased from 1188.8 to 1114.3 thousand people, or by 74.5 thousand people. If we take 1995 as the starting point, the natural decrease was 14%. The population reduction was going against the background of increase in crude birth rate from 7.0 births per 1000 population in 2000 to 10.0 in 2008, stabilization until 2016 at the level of 10-11, then falling to 9.2 in 2017-2019 along with reduction in crude death rate from 19.3-21.2 deaths per 1000 population in 2000-2004 to 15.4 in 2018. The downward trend in the population size will continue. According to the forecast of Ryazanstat, the total decrease in the population in 2036 will amount to 87.4 thousand people or 7.7% as compared to 2016. At the same time, the decline in the rural population in connection with the processes of urbanization will go at a faster pace. In the long run, the population size will be influ­enced by such factors as age structure, including reduction in the number of young people caused by the cataclysms of past years, fertility and mortality rates, trends in age shifts in women's calendar of births, population aging, improving quality of health care and quality life of the population. Population aging and reduction in the influx of the younger generation will lead to a sharp change in the structure of the population, which will increase the burden on the working population. The demographic burden on the working population per 1000 people will increase from 806 in 2016 to 945 in 2036. The burden on the rural population will reach 1300 people per 1000 in 2036. The level of migration does not compensate for the decline in the population. The only way out of this situa­tion is an adequate increase in labor productivity and quality of life of the population through active introduction of high-tech digital technologies in all spheres of life.