Russia's Food Import Dependence: Transformation Under Sanctions and Price Risks to Living Standards

This article aims to analyze Russia's dependence on food imports for domestic consumption in the context of sanctions and factors creating price risks affecting living standards. The research methodology is based on the principles of Russian statistics and the Russian Federation's Food Security Doctrine. The primary sources of information include data from Rosstat, customs statistics, Rosselkhoznadzor, the Bank of Russia, and the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). This article examines changes in the study area since 2014 using the food import dependence indicator—a calculated indicator that determines the role of the global market in shaping a country's food resources. The level of import dependence for certain types of socially significant products was calculated using statistical balances of consumer goods. Calculations showed that it differs from the self-sufficiency indicator (an adjustable indicator of food security) in both level and dynamics. Various combinations of these dynamics are identified: a decrease in import dependence amidst rising self-sufficiency, an increase in the former indicator amidst a decline in the latter, and an increase in the former indicator amidst a rise in the latter. It is substantiated that assessing transformation processes based on aggregated product types is insufficient; a detailed approach to their broader composition is essential. The article demonstrates that, as a result of global problems in the global food market in recent years, a persistent risk factor for living standards has emerged due to the accelerated growth of global prices, as well as the appreciation of the US dollar. It was determined that core imported inflation, calculated based on the ruble equivalent of the imported product, influences consumer price indices in the food market, decreasing as import dependence declines. The study suggests including import dependence and imported inflation indicators in food security indicators, allowing for a more comprehensive assessment of its status and the areas that pose challenges to the population's standard of living.