Predicting the emergence and spread of grass fires - on the example of Jewish autonomous region

The author offers the developed method of the occurrence and distribution of grass fires forecast, especially of agricultural fires. The method is based on the author's probabilistic model of the occurrence forecast, and on the Australian MacArthur’s model of the spread forecast of non-forest fire and verified in the territory of the Jewish Autonomous region. The proposed method proves to be of practical importance and good for the development of fire-fighting measures in the Far East of Russia.