Predicting the technical condition of an electric submersible pump based on neural network modeling

Introduction. The problem of predicting the state of an Electric Submersible Pump during operation is considered. Downtime and shortages caused by pump failure lead to losses in oil production and require time to replace equipment. By predicting the condition of the equipment, it is possible to minimize pump maintenance costs and reduce well downtime. Expert systems and predictive analytics methods are used to analyze the state of systems. The scientific work uses methods that are based on artificial neural networks. Purpose of research. Elaboration of the issues of forecasting the technical condition of the pump through by using machine-learning models. Materials and methods. Equipment failure forecasting is carried out using time series analysis. The data was obtained from telemetric sensors of the monitoring system installed on an electric submersible pump. The initial data were taken at one-minute intervals. Initial data preprocessing was carried out. The data was cleared of values (peaks) that are clearly got out of normal operation and places where the phase voltage was equal to zero were removed. An artificial neural network with the LSTM neuron type is used to predict time series. Time series forecasting was carried out for five days. Evaluating system parameters over long periods allows you to assess the condition of its components and prevent equipment failure. Results. The possibilities of neural networks trained on the basis of data from telemetric sensors of the monitoring system for predicting the values of vertical vibration of the pump are investigated. The use of a neural network model in the form of LSTM, which has shown good results in the analysis of time series, is justified. It was found that neural networks capture the trend well within the time series, which indicates the possibility of using it together with the expert system. Conclusion. The proposed methods and models are tested on real data, which confirms the possibility of their use in the development of an intelligent information system for managing the technical condition of an Electric Submersible Pump during operation.